A Political Glimpse from Ireland

What To Do Next?

The RNC and DNC are over, however Governor Palin seems to be dominating the headlines lately as the media mulls over whether she is a good choice or bad choice. I have already stated my opinion in a previous post, and on Twitter so I won’t bother to do that again however I think the Governor needs to be thoroughly examined by the media because if any of the rumors floating around are true, she could be the worst VP in history. There are less than 60 days to go to the election with Senator Obama holding a slim lead in the polls, what is his next step? How can he gain a significant lead over John McCain or does he even need to do that? I believe the Obama campaign is in a good position, even with the Palin “bump”, but Senator McCain is still losing however this could change very quickly. Senator Obama needs to continue to attack Senator McCain aggressively while reminding his supporters to keep on fighting to ensure a win in November.

The Convention Bounce

For some reason in the past week, the spam has been hitting this blog thick and fast. Two weeks ago I was unlucky enough to get 1 - 3 spam comments a day, now I am getting over 10. It’s not really a big issue but I was wondering if anyone else has experienced this kind of issue?

The good news for Senator McCain today is that his most likely choice is former Governor Romney according to Mark Halperin at Time:

2 Republican sources say McCain has apparently settled on Romney as his pick, but no offer has been made.

I personally don’t think this is a bad choice considering Senator Obama is favored in most polls for handling the economy better than Senator McCain. A few frequent commentors on this blog have argued whether VP’s actually make the difference in an election however I think it comes down to perception… if people believe a VP Romney will be right there by McCain side’s advocating economic policies to fix the current economic recession then maybe McCain is the right person to vote for? I honestly hope it is not governor Romney because I actually like the  guy and I think a fair number of independents would like him as well especially considering his success in my home state of Massachusetts. He turned the economy around, and that is one fact we democrats cannot argue.

I am going to keep my fingers crossed that former Governor Romney is not the guy because a Biden vs. Romney debate would not end well for Biden. Anyway, onto happier news, the DNC is next week and if you are not in America at the moment and wondering when to switch on the TV, you can view the DNC schedule here. The DNC is going to be one big event considering the lineup of speakers, I think it is going to be the biggest political event this year even more so than the RNC. Let’s face it, is there anyone that is going to top Senator Obama’s acceptance speech at the RNC? I don’t think so.

Senator McCain’s camp concurs releasing a new memo:

Obama’s stadium address on Thursday - the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have A Dream” speech - will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama’s place in history. For example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the historic nature of the addresses - a week before Obama’s speech. This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls.

We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.

This is good news going into this weekend for those Democrats who have been worrying about the narrowing polls, next week is going to be one hell of a week so make sure you get plenty of rest this weekend. Don’t forget the Obama VP announcement is tomorrow!

The Last VP Post

Well I was just watching a bit of a CNN a few hours ago when they announced that we will definitely hear Senator Obama’s pick for Vice President this week. I would probably not believe this statement if it wasn’t for the convention next week that I took off two days off of work to watch (Yes that is sadly true ). The problem is that with less than a week to go, even with all the speculation in the media and the blogosphere; I am  nowhere close to gleaming the most likely possibility.  The latest data from CNN’s Veepstakes:

The above screenshot indicates that Senator Biden is now the most likely choice according to the market but this is probably due to his trip to Georgia. Governor Sebelius is slightly below him but I imagine this is because she is a popular choice but not the most likely due to the Obama campaign stating they would not choose a female VP. So where does that leave us? I don’t know and like many people have said, it could be someone we don’t even suspect. With that in mind, watch the video below and leave your choice of most likely VP for Senator McCain and Senator Obama, the winner gets bragging rights:

Veep Stakes

I know some of you may be tiring of this talk about VP’s and may be thinking: “why don’t they just make a choice?” Given the slim lead Senator Obama holds over Senator McCain in the polls, the right candidate might help him tremendously or cause further negative speculation. I am a speculator by nature and often contemplate the various possibilities of life in my boredom at work sometimes, however the new CNN Veep Stakes displays a surprising turn of events:

This would lead an observer to conclude that the two possibilities for Senator Obama are Governor Sebelius and Governor Kaine. I have already written about Governor Sebelius in my own VP Profile however given that there is probably a week until the VP’s are announced, you can find a detailed profile at the Left Anchor for Governor Kaine. The interesting piece of information we can draw from the CNN data is that only in the last week has Governor Kaine’s possibilities improved with 3000 trades occurring between July 28th and July 30th.  In that same period, Governor Sebelius was traded half as much with 1500 trades on average.

During the writing of this post, the markets have changed again; Governor Kaine is no longer in close contention with Governor Sebelius.

Not that I mind this development, as much as Tim Kaine and Senator Obama get along, I believe his stance on certain core liberal issues might alienate some voters. Though at this point I would like to point out my error in previous VP posts; I no longer believe Senator Clinton has any possibility of being the Vice President. This news was brought to my attention by a few newspapers who have picked up the story that Senator Clinton will be speaking on August 26th rather then on the Wednesday when the VP is due to appear. Given this recent news, I am changing my prediction about Senator Obama’s running mate and throwing my support behind Governor Sebelius.

Zogby’s Colin Powell Idea

A recent telephone poll conducted by Zogby international seems to indicate that the best potential Vice President for Senator Obama is actually a Republican. Former Secretary of State Powell gives Senator Obama a 12% edge over likely voters as opposed to a choice of Senator Clinton. This data is not surprising given that national security is still a major issue with most Americans despite the current state of the economy. No one could argue that Colin Powell would be a good choice given his years of service in the Military not to mention the respect he would garner on the Republican side of the aisle:

I personally like Colin Powell having read his autobiography and watched some of the speeches he has given in on Television. I remember watching a Larry King interview with Colin Powell where Mr. Powell admitted to liking Senator Obama but would not endorse him at that time. I highly doubt Senator Obama will choose Mr. Powell but stranger things have happened in the world of politics, I will also stick by my earlier assertion that Senator Clinton has already been picked in secret but the Obama campaign is just running through the motions.

CBS has an interesting take on the veepstakes with Governor Sebelius at the top of their potential list. I wrote about Governor Sebelius as a potential VP in an earlier post so I won’t rehash old information, needless to say, she is growing in popularity as her name is spread around the highways of the internet. I would personally favor her over Senator Clinton given the existing relationship between Governor Sebelius and Senator Obama. CNN’s political market agrees with my earlier assertion about Senator Clinton’s with her shares trading at $18.83 cents compared to Senator Biden’s at $15.10. Lastly in my own political market that I play, the chance of Senator Obama choosing a woman is hovering at 27% so maybe Colin Powell is not so improbable?: