A Political Glimpse from Ireland

The Cross-Post

A big thanks to Big Blue for making the first post of many in the coming months. I have also done the same on his blog, The Left Anchor entitled: “And The Youth Shall Run.” Please do stop by if you have time, for one thing, his blog is a lot better looking

Race, Racism, and Politics in America

Race definitely became an issue during the primary campaign, as every utterance by Obama, Clinton, and their surrogates was scanned for racial content, but recently, race has reared its ugly head for the first time in the general election. Was Obama the one who injected race into the discussion by accusing the McCain campaign of trying to instill fear in the electorate by pointing out how he “doesn’t look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills?” Or did McCain’s camp bring race into the discussion by misreading Obama’s comment? There’s no way to know really, but it does highlight the still ultra-sensitive nature of race relations in America today.

Beyond the recent charges of racism and cynicism, there has been a distinct increase in negative campaigning, especially when it comes to the McCain campaign. In the last month, McCain has blamed Obama for the price of gas, suggested that Obama was no different from celebrities like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, and most recently, the McCain camp released an internet ad which clearly has the implication that Barack Obama is the anti-Christ (see “The One“). I assume the spot was meant to be a dog whistle, but it came across more like a fog horn. New York Magazine has an article up now which delves into these issues, and it truly is a must-read:

As countless fact-checkers and tsk-tskers have maintained, the broadsides were a blend of distortion, innuendo, and outright slander. But that doesn’t mean they (and their inevitable successors) won’t prove effective, especially against an opponent with so little experience under ruthless and relentless fire. Before Obama hurled himself into the presidential scrum he’d never been hit with a negative ad—a point often raised by Hillary Clinton’s people. And though they made sure Obama lost his negative-spot virginity, the ads they ran against him were patty-cake compared with what he faces now. Hence the questions on which the general election may turn: Will Obama be capable of withstanding the pummeling the McCain forces have begun to unleash? Or, as Hillary privately predicted, will he crumple like a paper doll?

For those not keeping score, a quick review of the McCain campaign’s lunge for Obama’s jugular. First, its new slogan: “Country first,” with its inverse insinuation that Obama puts something else (i.e., his own ambition) ahead of the nation. Second, McCain’s accusation that Obama “would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign.” Third, the McCain ad “Troops,” which claims that Obama, while in Germany, “made time to go the gym, but canceled a visit with wounded troops—seems the Pentagon wouldn’t allow him to bring cameras.” And, finally, the ad “Celeb,” with its intercut images of Obama in Berlin, Paris Hilton, and Britney Spears.

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[T]he motor behind his operation now is Steve Schmidt, the shaven-headed strategist who earned his bones running Karl Rove’s war room in 2004, Frenchifying and de-war-heroizing John Kerry. What Schmidt and his associates have apparently concluded is that McCain’s weaknesses—on the election’s most salient issues and as a candidate—are so pronounced and Obama’s vulnerabilities so glaring that the low road is their guy’s best, and maybe only, route to the White House. They’ve concluded, in other words, that even if McCain may not be able to win the election in any affirmative sense, he might still wind up behind the big desk if he and his people can strip the bark off Obama with sufficiently vicious force.

Can McCain ride this to victory? These recent attacks on Obama carry great risks for the Arizona Senator. John McCain is supposed to be above negative campaigning, but that’s not what we’re seeing here. These ads do seem to have given McCain short term gains in key battleground states, but how will these serve him in the long run? It’s hard to campaign as a straight-talking outsider when your own campaign team is being run by members of the Bush campaign, and you’ve resorted to the kind of baseless negative attacks which have been utilized by candidates for decades. In my opinion, Barack Obama needs stop playing defense — no matter how skillfully he may do so — and frame this debate on his own terms. The only way Obama loses is if he allows this election to be all about him.

Veep Stakes

I know some of you may be tiring of this talk about VP’s and may be thinking: “why don’t they just make a choice?” Given the slim lead Senator Obama holds over Senator McCain in the polls, the right candidate might help him tremendously or cause further negative speculation. I am a speculator by nature and often contemplate the various possibilities of life in my boredom at work sometimes, however the new CNN Veep Stakes displays a surprising turn of events:

This would lead an observer to conclude that the two possibilities for Senator Obama are Governor Sebelius and Governor Kaine. I have already written about Governor Sebelius in my own VP Profile however given that there is probably a week until the VP’s are announced, you can find a detailed profile at the Left Anchor for Governor Kaine. The interesting piece of information we can draw from the CNN data is that only in the last week has Governor Kaine’s possibilities improved with 3000 trades occurring between July 28th and July 30th.  In that same period, Governor Sebelius was traded half as much with 1500 trades on average.

During the writing of this post, the markets have changed again; Governor Kaine is no longer in close contention with Governor Sebelius.

Not that I mind this development, as much as Tim Kaine and Senator Obama get along, I believe his stance on certain core liberal issues might alienate some voters. Though at this point I would like to point out my error in previous VP posts; I no longer believe Senator Clinton has any possibility of being the Vice President. This news was brought to my attention by a few newspapers who have picked up the story that Senator Clinton will be speaking on August 26th rather then on the Wednesday when the VP is due to appear. Given this recent news, I am changing my prediction about Senator Obama’s running mate and throwing my support behind Governor Sebelius.